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<publisher>HAL CCSD</publisher>
<title lang=en>A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs</title>
<creator>Puotinen, Marji</creator>
<creator>Maynard, Jeffrey A</creator>
<creator>Beeden, Roger</creator>
<creator>Radford, Ben</creator>
<creator>Williams, Gareth J.</creator>
<contributor>Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS)</contributor>
<contributor>Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF) - Université de Nouvelle Calédonie - Institut d'écologie et environnement</contributor>
<contributor>Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)</contributor>
<contributor>Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA)</contributor>
<contributor>School of Ocean Sciences ; Bangor University</contributor>
<description>International audience</description>
<source>ISSN: 2045-2322</source>
<source>EISSN: 2045-2322</source>
<source>Scientific Reports</source>
<publisher>Nature Publishing Group</publisher>
<identifier>hal-01330362</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01330362</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01330362/document</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01330362/file/srep26009.pdf</identifier>
<source>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01330362</source>
<source>Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 2016, pp.26009. 〈10.1038/srep26009〉</source>
<identifier>DOI : 10.1038/srep26009</identifier>
<relation>info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/srep26009</relation>
<language>en</language>
<subject>[SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment</subject>
<subject>[SDU.STU.OC] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography</subject>
<subject>[SDE] Environmental Sciences</subject>
<type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</type>
<type>Journal articles</type>
<description lang=en>Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985–2015 using three models – including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985–2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur. </description>
<rights>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/</rights>
<date>2016</date>
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