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<identifier>oai:HAL:hal-01180041v1</identifier>
<datestamp>2018-01-11</datestamp>
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<metadata><dc>
<publisher>HAL CCSD</publisher>
<title lang=en>Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models</title>
<creator>Voyant, Cyril</creator>
<creator>Soubdhan, Ted</creator>
<creator>Lauret, Philippe</creator>
<creator>David, Mathieu</creator>
<creator>Muselli, Marc</creator>
<contributor>Sciences pour l'environnement (SPE) ; Université Pascal Paoli (UPP) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)</contributor>
<contributor>Laboratoire de Recherche en Géosciences et Énergies (LaRGE) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG)</contributor>
<contributor>Physique et Ingénierie Mathématique pour l'Énergie, l'environnemeNt et le bâtimenT (PIMENT) ; Université de la Réunion (UR)</contributor>
<contributor>Laboratoire SPE, CNRS UMR 6134, Université de Corse, Corte, FRANCE</contributor>
<description>International audience</description>
<source>ISSN: 0195-6574</source>
<source>Energy Journal</source>
<publisher>International Association for Energy Economics</publisher>
<identifier>hal-01180041</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/document</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/file/discriminent_param.pdf</identifier>
<source>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041</source>
<source>Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, 2015, pp.1</source>
<language>en</language>
<subject lang=en>Solar forecasting</subject>
<subject lang=en>time series</subject>
<subject lang=en>clear sky models</subject>
<subject lang=en>fractal dimension</subject>
<subject lang=en>mutual information</subject>
<subject lang=en>log-return</subject>
<subject>[INFO.INFO-IR] Computer Science [cs]/Information Retrieval [cs.IR]</subject>
<subject>[SDE] Environmental Sciences</subject>
<type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</type>
<type>Journal articles</type>
<description lang=en>In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set ofstatistical parameters (20)to estimate the predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardlessthe forecasting methodsa modeller can possibly implement. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometry, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations.</description>
<date>2015-09-01</date>
</dc>
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